Well, the first test for the 2008 Presidential campaign is complete. Iowa had some drama and when we woke up this morning, some of us might have been surprised. The questions now are: Who Stays? Who Goes? Who drops out to support who?
For the Democratic Party, in what I feel is a surprising victory,Sen. Barack Obama won by 7%. I'm surprised because it was by that many percentage points. Obama's win came at 37%, John Edwards came in 2nd with 30% and Sen. Hillary Clinton came in third with 29%. With 97 % the rest of the Democratic field (Sen. Dodd, Sen. Biden, etc...) was irrelevant and should all drop out in a week or so. The questions comes, who do they support when they drop out of the race?
For the Republicans, it was a surging Gov. Mike Huckabee winning with 34% that overcame Gov. Mitt Romney with 25% of the vote. Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain had a third place tie with only 13% of the vote. In what I feel is the surprise of the race, Rep. Ron Paul nearly doubled New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 10% to 3 % respectively. Duncan Hunter nearly achieved a .5%. It's safe to say that Hunter will drop out shortly.
The surprising part about the Republicans is that Giuliani had the lead just a short time ago and then to get smacked around like a fly at a picnic makes you wonder, are polls that accurate? We saw Huckabee surging in recent weeks, but like that? I listened to Giuliani on an interview yesterday with Mike Gallagher you would have thought that he had a huge lead in the polls in New Hampshire when asked about his upcoming schedule. I'm beginning to think that the socially moderate Republicans are losing ground now in politics, at least in my eyes.
On the Democratic party side, I still think that Edwards will win the nomination once he gets to the Southern States. Obama will have to answer questions about his religion and his link to Islam and Hillary will not drum up that much support being from New York. But who am I to give a prediction?
In closing, the next week is going to be even more brutal than before. New Hampshire sits close to Mass and all the other New England states that will help put some delegates in the corner of the winner. I'm thinking that Clinton and Romney will win in New Hampshire. For the GOP, McCain will gain more support as will Ron Paul. Giuliani will again be disappointed after the results come out.
Let us remember that this process is so interesting and very American. Enjoy that process but filter out the rhetoric. We live in America where we have a voice to be heard and this is the time to use it.
God Bless America!
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